Replay our webcast from July 12th.
Weil sich unser Inflations- und Wachstumsausblick für die USA seit Anfang 2018 deutlich verbessert hat, haben wir unsere Erwartungen für die US-Staatsanleiherenditen und die anhand von TIPS be-rechnete Breakeven-Inflation angehoben. In diesem Beitrag analysieren wir, was aus unserer Sicht die US-Inflation steigen lässt und erörtern die mögliche geldpolitische Reaktion der Federal Reserve (Fed).
Der Ausblick: Wie viel ist Inflation ist zu viel Inflation?
Warum ist die Volatilität so niedrig?
Aktien dürften vom Wachstum und den noch immer niedrigen Zinsen profitieren
Foreseeing calmer markets over the next few months, we have identified several reversal themes
SUMMARY: Despite trade tensions, concerns about global growth and more volatile markets than in 2017, our base case scenario remains one of robust global growth and contained inflation. This underpins our bullish view on equities, with a preference for eurozone equities where we see positive earnings growth prospects and room for margin expansion
Three shocks hit markets: (i) an escalation of political risk, (ii) weakening growth (notably in Europe); and (iii) a stronger USD, which led to stress in emerging markets In Italy, market worries about fiscal excesses and the prospect of a clash between the new government and European authorities escalated. As a result, ‘peripheral’ eurozone debt sold off. Italian markets are likely to remain volatile in coming months as investors digest further news on political developments and economic data There are signs of a growth slowdown, notably in the eurozone, according to recent data. However, we find it difficult to call a turn in the economic cycle yet. While the data have weakened, activity is still expanding both in the developed world and emerging markets Emerging market stress was largely a consequence of higher US yields and USD strength. In our view, local debt offers value and currently lower US yields are reassuring, but we need to see the USD and global risk sentiment stabilise for EM debt to rally materially
SUMMARY: As in February, US Treasury yields rose to the point where they ended up rocking markets, but this time the disruption was more visible in the US dollar and emerging markets than in equity markets / We see several factors for the rise: (i) US inflation and crude oil prices hit 2018 highs in April, (ii) US macroeconomic data have been robust enough for the US Federal Reserve to continue normalising its interest-rate policy, and (iii) rates markets have become more concerned about US Treasury debt issuance / The bar is quite high for further interest-rate increases in the near term, but when policy tightening does resume, we think this will not keep equity markets from rallying as long as the growth backdrop remains solid / The stronger USD reflects disappointing economic activity data in the G10 and emerging markets compared to the US. This is consistent with markets pricing in reduced expectations of central bank policy normalisation in Europe and Japan / Further USD strength is possible, but we doubt it can persist in the medium term unless the prospects for growth in the US continue to decouple from those for the rest of the world
Concerns over inflation, less central bank accommodation / trade protectionism escalates / activity data disappoints / reducing equity exposure, macro view unchanged / adding to EMU duration underweight
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