Märkte und Strategien

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Blick auf die Welt, Newsfeed

Investmentausblick 2019 – Regimewechsel

January 25, 2019
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January 25, 2019 Blick auf die Welt, Newsfeed
BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Finance 4 1440x300
January 11, 2019 Analyse de l'allocation d'actifs, Investmentstrategien

Central banks induce regime shifts

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Finance 4 1440x300
October 10, 2018 Analyse de l'allocation d'actifs, Investmentstrategien

So far so good, but markets underestimate risks

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Finance 1 1440x300
September 10, 2018 Analyse de l'allocation d'actifs, Investmentstrategien

SUMMARY: US equities continued to outperform other markets such as EMU and EM equities. This partly reflects the divergence between the US economy -which is supported by fiscal expansion and a patient Federal Reserve- and relatively weaker growth in the eurozone and EM. But there is more to this divergence than faster US economic growth. The US equity rally has been led by the IT sector. This has accounted for 20%-50% of US equity returns since 2016. The rally is now looking stretched on various metrics. The other salient development in August was renewed stress in emerging markets (EM). A combination of economic stress in Turkey, weaker growth in China, Sino-US trade tensions and a stronger US dollar hurt EM assets. We believe there is value in EM assets, but the obvious circuit-breakers are still absent: a weaker USD, aggressive China stimulus and fresh Sino-US trade talks. EM assets prospects have soured and protectionism and tighter liquidity continue to cloud their longer-term prospects.